Kishida's Farewell Summit in Seoul

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida arrived in Seoul on September 6, 2024, for a two-day visit that is widely seen as a final symbolic gesture before he steps down from leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Kishida announced he will not seek a new term, and a new party leader is expected to be chosen by the end of September. This visit, his last as prime minister, underscores the importance he and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol have placed on repairing and strengthening bilateral ties after years of friction.

The two leaders have held eleven meetings since taking office, focusing on security cooperation, economic partnership, and tackling historical grievances. According to Karoline Postel-Vinay, a researcher at Sciences Po's Center for International Research, the core driver of this rapprochement is regional security. Both Japan and South Korea face a challenging strategic environment, with China's growing assertiveness, North Korea's missile tests, and uncertainty about the U.S. commitment under future administrations.

Security First: The Trilateral Axis

The United States has been actively encouraging closer coordination between Tokyo and Seoul. The trilateral partnership with Washington is seen as essential for deterrence and crisis management in East Asia. Kishida and Yoon have participated in joint military exercises and agreed to share real-time intelligence on North Korean missile launches. This cooperation marks a significant shift from the tense relations under Yoon's predecessor, Moon Jae-in, and Japan's former leader Shinzo Abe.

However, the rapprochement is not without risks. Both countries are wary of provoking China, their largest trading partner. While the U.S. pushes for a unified front against Beijing, Japan and South Korea are careful not to escalate rhetoric. The issue of Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint: if China were to invade, both Japan and South Korea would face difficult decisions about military involvement.

Historical Baggage: Unresolved Wounds

Nearly 80 years after the end of Japan's colonial rule of Korea (1910-1945), historical issues remain deeply emotional. The so-called “comfort women” – Korean women forced into sexual slavery by the Japanese military – are a particular source of pain. South Korean survivors have long demanded a formal apology and compensation. In 2015, a bilateral agreement attempted to settle the matter, but it was criticized for lacking input from the victims.

Under Kishida and Yoon, both leaders have committed to “not letting history become an obstacle to the future.” They have established a joint fund for the victims and agreed to share documentation. Yet, nationalist groups in both countries continue to use the issue for political gain. Postel-Vinay notes that denial of wartime atrocities is a minority view in Japan, but it gained more visibility under Abe. In South Korea, the issue also intersects with domestic gender politics, as many survivors were initially shunned by their own society.

Territorial Dispute: Dokdo vs. Takeshima

Another persistent point of contention is the sovereignty over a group of small islets in the Sea of Japan, known as Dokdo in Korea and Takeshima in Japan. Currently administered by South Korea, the islands are claimed by Japan. The dispute periodically flares up, especially when Japanese politicians make statements or when Korean activists visit the islands. During their meetings, Kishida and Yoon have “put all contentious issues on the table,” according to Postel-Vinay, but a solution remains elusive. Both sides have agreed to continue dialogue and avoid actions that could escalate tensions.

Economic and Cultural Ties: More Than Tourism

While tourism has been highlighted as a visible sign of improved relations – Japanese visitors to South Korea increased by over 40% in 2024 – the economic relationship is far deeper. Japan and South Korea are the second and third largest economies in East Asia, after China. They are key players in global supply chains for semiconductors, automobiles, and electronics. In 2023, total bilateral trade reached $80 billion, though it is still less than each country's trade with the United States or China.

The two countries are also cooperating in new areas such as clean energy, space exploration, and digital economy. A joint venture to develop next-generation batteries is underway. However, competition remains fierce, particularly in the tech sector where South Korean companies like Samsung compete directly with Japanese giants like Sony and Panasonic.

The North Korea Factor

Pyongyang's continued missile tests and nuclear threats have been a powerful incentive for Japan and South Korea to coordinate. President Yoon has taken a hard line against North Korea, unlike his predecessor who sought engagement. Kishida has supported this stance, agreeing to impose additional sanctions and to work together on cyber defense. Yet, there is recognition that diplomacy must eventually resume. The two leaders have expressed willingness to engage with North Korea if it shows sincerity in denuclearization.

The emotional dimension of inter-Korean relations has evolved. Older generations in South Korea still have family ties in the North, but younger South Koreans view the North more as a hostile foreign country. Popular culture, such as K-dramas that depict North Korean defectors, creates a romanticized image that sometimes contrasts with reality. Nevertheless, the shared language and cultural heritage keep the idea of national reunification alive, even if it seems distant.

Future of the Rapprochement: Political Risks

Despite the progress, the rapprochement is fragile. Both Japan and South Korea face domestic political uncertainties. Opposition parties in South Korea, particularly the liberal Democratic Party, have criticized Yoon's “submissive” approach to Japan. If the opposition wins the next presidential election in 2027, they may reverse course. In Japan, Kishida's successor might prioritize other issues or have a different vision for regional relations.

The U.S. election in November 2024 also introduces a wildcard. A victory by Donald Trump could lead to demands for higher defense contributions or a reduction of American forces in Asia, which would destabilize the trilateral alliance. Kamala Harris, if elected, would likely continue Biden's policy, but both candidates share an antagonistic stance toward China, which could pressure Japan and South Korea into a more confrontational position than they desire.

Analysis from Experts

Karoline Postel-Vinay emphasizes that the current alignment of leaders – Kishida, Yoon, and Biden – is a unique window of opportunity. “The stars are aligned,” she says, but cautions that it may not last. The structural dependencies remain: Japan's constitution limits its military, and South Korea oscillates between pro-American and nationalist foreign policies. For now, both countries are committed to making the partnership work, addressing historical issues transparently, and building a common security architecture that can withstand future shocks.

This visit, though symbolic, sends a strong message that Japan and South Korea can put aside their differences when faced with common challenges. The test will be whether this spirit persists after Kishida leaves office and after the next elections in Seoul and Washington.

Source: RFI News